8/11/2026

Some things to note before we get into this. First off, many of the statistics I used were from Brent Ciancia’s Pix Six Preview. This is by far the most informational tool I have gotten my hands on. And although I reference this tool a lot, once the football season starts, all this goes out the window. One game will tell you more than any preview magazine can, and an important distinction that many people forget is to not tie yourself to your preseason predictions. We see this happen all the time in preseason rankings with AP voters, before the season they are voting on expectations, not results which is okay because there are no results yet. But as soon as a highly touted team has a bad game, and then another bad game, they are still holding onto their prediction and therefore expectations and then are putting out rankings based on personal pride versus tangible product. This is dangerous for many reasons, which can be its own mini-article later. I will be evaluating these predictions mid season to see how they are holding up. Lastly, I refer to the phrase “question mark” a lot in this article, and that’s all they are. In the words of Josh Pate, question marks are question marks, not weaknesses, as question marks can turn out to be strengths. 

Power 4 

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC): University of Miami vs University of Louisville 

It is no shock for anyone to have Miami at least in the conference title game if not winning the conference. At the time of writing, Miami is -136 to win the conference, and -250 to make the title game. They are one of two schools in the Power 4 conferences to have minus odds to win their respective championship.

Miami is absolutely loaded. Darien Mensah is a stud and he actually won the ACC title last season with Duke and he brought his best receiver Cooper Barkate to reeled in 1100 yards and was a top 10 transfer receiver in the portal. They join an already star studded offense with Malachi Toney and Mark Fletcher Jr. coming back. Their one question mark is the offensive line, they had 4 all ACC O-Lineman last year and all of them are gone. They did get the top lineman in the nation from high school this cycle in Jackson Cantwell, but I am curious to see how they hold up as a unit. 

Facing Miami I have Jeff Brohm and Louisville. I believe they will make massive strides this year after a disappointing end of the season last year. They went 8-4, but easily could have been 11-1. They beat themselves in 3 of those 4 losses, losing their first three by a combined 7 points. This year they took in Ohio State’s backup QB Lincoln Kienholz and two great receivers in Tre Richardson and Lawayne McCoy from Vanderbilt and Florida State respectively. Their running unit will be the highlight of the offense though. They return two backs who both averaged over 7.3 yards per carry. They have a new defensive coordinator promoted internally, but I do not expect a drop off in production from them as they return many key pieces. 

SMU was a close choice for me, I would not be shocked if they found their way in this game, but they lost both coordinators, and truthfully I just expect a big step up from Louisville. I have Miami winning this game, I see it being a shootout. Both schools are highlighted by their offense and have the ability to change the game in a single play, but Miami is going to have a more stout defense and are just the better team overall. 

Big 10: University of Oregon vs Indiana University

Oregon is going to be scary, really really scary. Picture this, you have a team that has only lost to Indiana, and Ohio State in the last two seasons, and they return 65% of their production on both sides of the ball. Now I try to use returning production as a measurement metric carefully, because returning production only helps if you improve, if the players stay at the same level as they did the previous year, then we already know their ceiling. But last year they had many freshman/sophomore starters so I really do expect improvement here. Going to speed run their returning players/groups this year because if I gave notes on all of them we would be here for a long time. Offensively they return future first round draft pick QB Dante Moore, an amazing sophomore duo of running backs Jordon Davison (18 TD’s last year) & Dierre Hill (led nation in 8.8 yards per carry), they get back from injury Evan Stewart and Dakorian Moore (both were the WR1 in their recruiting classes) and if they get tired they added two more 5 star receivers in this class. Let’s take a breath, now defensively they return their entire starting defensive line (which is insane to say). And regarding their defensive backs, get ready for this, per Brent Ciancia Pick Six Preview’s they have four five stars, four more Top50 recruits, and four more in the Top100, only for DB’s. Oh and they signed the top transfer safety Koi Perich from Minnesota. They have the talent roster to be the best defense in the country this year. 

Opposite them this game I struggled, Ohio State, or Indiana. And both of them have major questions I want answered. Last year when Indiana and Ohio State played I sided with Ohio State. I was an Indiana doubter and that’s on me. I really wanted to pick Ohio State here but I’m finished doubting Curt Cignetti. Additionally, I believe Ohio State to have a much tougher schedule. I see Ohio State still being in the playoffs, but I do not see them in the Big 10 Championship game. 

Indiana brings in talented players at QB and RB, but they have their turnover issues. Josh Hoover leads the NCAA in passing yards by an active QB, but has turned the ball over 42 times in 31 games. Turbo Richard who is a Boston College transfer also fumbled twice at the goal line. I expect these issues to be mitigated, but they are noteworthy. They return 4 out of their 5 O-linemen and should be one of the nations best. They return 6 all-Big10 players defensively and reloaded with a ton of talent. 

I have Oregon winning this game. I trust Dan Lanning to continually develop the young roster he had last year. They were great last year only losing two games both to Indiana, but this year I see them improved. They have so much firepower and I do not think Indiana will be able to stop them. Indiana will still be very very competitive, but I have questions I need answered throughout the season before I can put a team above Oregon. 

Big 12: Texas Tech University vs Brigham Young University 

Texas Tech had a historical season last year, and did what Jimbo Fisher could not, sign a bunch of extremely high level talent, and win. They join 2018 Alabama and 2019 Ohio State as the only teams since 2014 to win 11 regular season games by 20+ points. They had the best LB season in this generation, and 4 D-Lineman were drafted. Nine starters were All-Big 12, and 5 were first team. And the scariest part, they return 64% of their production, and almost 19,000 defensive snaps which is the most of any team in the Power 4. Offensively they basically do the same. They return 67% of production on this side of the ball with 17,000 snaps returning. Per Brent Ciancia’s Unit Ranking’s, outside of QB position, Texas Tech has the best RB/WR/TE/OL group in the Big 12 that all rank top 10 nationally. Of course their biggest question mark is QB. They thought they were going to get Brendan Sorsby, but that did not pan out as expected for off the field reasons, so they proceeded with Will Hammond, he had flashed of greatness last year, but will need to build consistently this year to keep up with the absolutely stacked roster TTU retains. On top of all this, they won the schedule lottery, they avoid BYU, Utah, and their tougher opponents in Houston and Arizona State come to Lubbock. Draft Kings has them at -105 to win the conference. 

Opposite them, BYU also had a great year losing their only two games of the season to Texas Tech. They had to emergency start Bear Bachmeier after their original starter Jake Retzlaff was forced out. They had zero starters transfer out. They also return a major strength in LJ Martin who was last year’s B12 Offensive Player of the year. They reloaded their WR room as well after losing all three of their All-B12 players. Defensively they return almost 70% of their production. Although Jay Hill, their DC departed for Michigan, I do not expect a big drop off in performance from them. Similarly to the offense, they keep a lot of key starters. 

If Texas Tech can disrupt the BYU run game they will win this game. BYU specializes in establishing the run game through LJ Martin, and from that they can be creative with Bachmeier. If Martin can run the ball well, TTU will need to stack the box, and that creates opportunity for big plays, that is how BYU would win the game. However I just do not see BYU holding up against the TTU defense. Texas Tech will be disruptive, they will make BYU uncomfortable, and they will do that while their offense absolutely rolls on unapologetically. Texas Tech will win this conference for the second year in a row. 

South-Eastern Conference (SEC): University of Georgia vs Ole Miss 

Georgia knows how to win, no other way to put it. They have won four of the last five SEC championships, and are in prime position to do it again. They return 14 starters, and the players they did lose are being replaced by more 5-star recruits. In Kirby Smart fashion, they trust their developmental and recruitment process and did not go too far into the portal to find replacements for departing talent. They return their QB Gunnar Stockton, their pair of RB’s, and three lineman, but their biggest question mark is the WR and TE room. Only one of their top 5 WR’s returned, so they will absolutely need to learn on new talent to fill the void. Defensively they return 8 starters. They bring back 8 lineman that rotate, and all three starting LB’s are 5 stars, and bring back 4 starting DB’s. They also have a relatively easy schedule compared to most with their toughest games being Oklahoma, Alabama, and Ole Miss.

Ole Miss had a crazy season, and here is a summary. They went 11-1 in the regular season losing only to Georgia, had their starting QB go down week 2, started their D2 backup who ended being one of the best QB’s in the country, went through a HC change right before playoffs, promoted DC Pete Golding, steamrolled Tulane, got revenge against Georgia, and lost on a last second TD to Miami, got a court injunction to keep their D2 QB, and fought their former HC in the portal to keep players. I am out of breath, give me a moment. However they return what should be the best QB in the country Trinidad Chambliss, and a top 3 RB in the country Kewan Lacy. They reloaded at WR, and kept 3 starting OL. On the defensive side they return many key pieces getting back 17,000 snaps (5th highest in the country), and signed 8 four star transfers. I think Pete Golding took it personally that they gave up a lot of points last year and that Kiffin’s strategy was to just boat race teams. 

This head coach matchup is going to be fun to watch. We saw it pan out in the playoff game that Ole Miss won last year, but this year is going to be much more fun. We see two elite QB’s, two elite defenses. Georgia will need to contain chunk plays from Ole Miss to win. But ultimately, I trust Kirby Smart to get it done. They have more championship pedigree, and have more experience in the big moments. I think this is only the start for Golding, but until Kirby Smart starts to consistently slip up, this is his conference to lose. We will see this match happen on Nov 7th in Oxford. MS.

Group of 6 

American Conference: University of Texas- San Antonio vs Navy

This conference had a ton of turnover last year so there are so many question marks. Four teams who finished in the top 6 last year all lost their head coach to Power 4 programs, and with them many players from those schools transferred to be with their coach at their new school. This caused a complete flip from the previous year in terms of who the favorites are, and this painted the way for Navy and UTSA to rise to the preseason top. 

This game is a unique matchup, UTSA will want the game sped up, and Navy will want it slowed down. If UTSA can score early, and run up the score, they will win this game. Navy is not a team that is meant to play from behind. They are a team that wants long sustained drives that wear you down over the course of 4 quarters. If UTSA gets the opportunity to give their third year starter Owen McCown the chance to play with a lead, UTSA will win this handedly. But we will see them play on Oct 17th in San Antonio, TX during the regular season, possible championship game preview? 

Conference USA (CUSA): Jacksonville State University vs Liberty University 

Liberty has been the most consistent CUSA team over the recent years, but to me, Jacksonville State has the best outlook. After Caden Creel became the starter, he led them to a 7-2 record while throwing for 1500 yards and 9 TD’s while rushing for 1100 yards and 7 TD’s. He comes in as a proven playmaker who will be a difference maker for them this year. Liberty brings in a proven defense, but QB play is still a question mark as they have not named a starter at time of writing, although it will likely be 2025 starter Ethan Vasko. 

This game will come down to a simple position group matchup. Can Liberty stop the Jacksonville State run. If they can, they will force Creel to make more throws, which can lead to more 3rd and long situations, and therefore more mistakes and force errors. If they can run the ball successfully, it allows us to see the best version of the Jacksonville State offense playing fluidly and loose. I see it being a tight game, but I see Jacksonville State being a little more offensively overwhelming and winning the game. 

Mid-American Conference (MAC): Western Michigan University vs Miami

University (OH)

I have a repeat of the 2025 championship game in the MAC. Western Michigan brings back 89% of their offensive snaps offensively 70% defensively and that continuity will lead them back to this game. With Miami, I plainly just trust Chuck Martin. His Redhawks have been to the last three games, and won in 2023. Miami also has the most solidified identity in the MAC playing a hardnosed style of football making teams earn their points rather than giving up big plays. 

I have two good friends both named Max, one went to Western Michigan, one went to Miami (OH) they’re both going to read this when it comes out and one will be happy and the other disappointed. Max W I am sorry but I have Western going back to back and winning the game this year. I believe all the returning production from Western will carry them through this game to come out on top over Miami, again. 

Mountain-West Conference (MWC): University of Nevada-Las Vegas vs North Dakota State University

The Mountain West is finally free of Boise State. The team that has won the conference the previous three years has moved to the Pac-12, and from what they tell me, that means a new team must win the mountain west this year. I believe that UNLV and NDSU will be the teams that will fight to be crowned the conference’s first new champion since 2022. 

UNLV is going to be a good team this year. Offensively they will be one of if not the best offense in the MWC and if they are able to hit their stride against NDSU and get those big chunk plays going, they will run away with the game. However NDSU is a team built to prevent chunk plays. It was only a matter of time before they moved from the FCS level to the FBS level, and in their first season as an FBS team, I expect them to waste no time. Since 2011, they have won 10 national titles in FCS. I do not care what level of football that is, if you win 10 titles in 15 years, you are doing something very right. NDSU will be physical, they will be disciplined, and they will force you to beat them, because they will not beat themselves. 

They play Oct 10th, so we will get to see this matchup a few months early. I trust UNLV to get this done and have been in this conference title game the previous 3 years, losing all three to Boise State who is no longer in the conference, so this year will be their time to finally bring it home. 

Pac-12: Boise State University vs Texas State University

I would love to see this matchup at the end of the year, but lucky for me, they already play a regular season game on Oct 31st when Texas State goes to Idaho to play Boise State. Boise is a heavy favorite to not only win the Pac-12, but also be the Group of 6 team that makes the college football playoff, and rightfully so. They return veteran QB Maddux Madsen and a group of skill players to what is going to be a really balanced offense. But Texas State has Brad Jackson, and Brad Jackson is good at football. Last year he was responsible for 38 TD’s, passed for 3200 yards and rushed for 750. 

In this game both teams will want to have an opposite playstyle. Boise wants to turn this into your traditional establish the line of scrimmage with the run, and take advantage of gaps in the secondary when Texas is forced to protect both. Texas State wants to turn this into a track meet. They want to give Brad Jackson the opportunity to win this game. Low scoring game I would favor Boise, high scoring game, I favor Texas State, but ultimately I go with the experience and winning history and pick Boise to win the Pac-12 

Sun Belt Conference (SBC): Troy University vs Old Dominion University

Fitting that our final prediction is the only conference in FBS still with divisions. And still I have a familiar team winning. Out of the west I have Troy. Troy is an interesting team that ran a 2 QB system last year. After starter Goose Crowder went down, Ticker Kilcrease started the next 7, played well but once Crowder got healthy, went back to being the backup. Donnie Smith who is easily Troy’s best defensive player also returns, he had 11 sacks and 12 TFL last year. 

Old Dominion keeps a stout defense, but needed to replace their experienced QB. Jaxon Potter is the new QB at Old Dominion, and if history tells us anything about Washington State transfer QB’s he will be good. For those who do not know, Cam Ward and John Mateer both came from WSU and transferred out, and were both really good. 

Troy wins this game by making ODU throw the ball more than they want. If Donnie Smith and the D-Line can smother the run, they will force mistakes and hold them to short drives, and less scoring opportunities. I see Troy getting the lead, and wearing down ODU, and winning this game.