8/25/2026

The season starts in 6 days and I could not be happier. This week I wanted to put out some season long bets that I have put my money on. Also, on Friday I will be putting out my betslip for Saturday’s games. I will continue to do this every Friday throughout the regular season.

Darien Mensah to win the Heisman

This was the first bet I made for the season. I am very high on Miami this year, and I think Mensah will be the best QB Miami has had the last three years. He has one of best supporting casts with Cooper Barkate, Malachi Toney, Mark Fletcher, and if that offense does end up having a weakness it will be with the offensive line, not the skill players. Mensah also has the benefit of playing in the ACC, so competition will not be as tough as some QB’s have like Julien Sayin or Arch Manning playing B10 or SEC defenses each week allowing him to run up his numbers. They can realistically go undefeated this year with their only toss up game being against Notre Dame. So assuming that let me ask this question, does the QB leading an undefeated or 11-1 power 4 team put them high in the Heisman race? The answer is yes.

BYU over 8.5 wins

This team plays only 2 teams that are currently ranked, Notre Dame, and Utah. BYU will be a very talented team in general, but I just don’t see them losing more than 2 games. 

Wisconsin under 6.5 wins 

Wisconsin has declined every year under Luke Fickell, and although I do not see them going 4-8 or worse again this year, I do not believe they will exceed more than 6 wins. I have them losing to Notre Dame, Penn State, USC, UCLA, and Iowa which means they would only need to lose 1 more to go 6-6. And they will drop another game. 

Penn State over 8.5 wins

Similar to BYU, Penn State has a very favorable schedule. They have 3 easily winnable non conference games, and using current rankings they only play 3 ranked teams in Michigan, USC, and Washington. They were able to avoid Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa, and Nebraska. Additionally, the majority of this roster are from Iowa State where they went 8-4 and all 4 losses were in a row when they were dealing with a ton of injuries. Winning the scheduled lottery and bringing in a bunch of talent will boost this team to more than 8 wins. 

Arkansas under 4.5 wins

Arkansas last year had 2 things going for them, Taylon Green and Mike Washington Jr. Neither are still on the team. Ryan Silverfield is now steering the ship for them and I just do not see a favorable year for them. It will be a rebuilding year, and they really do not inherit any great pieces. Pix Six Previews has all but 2 position groups ranked dead last in the SEC, with the other two rankings being 14 and 15. I like Ryan Silverfield, he did great things at Memphis, but just a lack of talent will be difficult to overcome.  

4 Leg Conference Championship Winner Parley

4 legs, 4 conference winners. Oregon to win the Big 10, Miami to win the ACC, Texas Tech to win the Big 12, and Georgia to win the SEC. Taking this leg by leg, starting with Miami. If Miami does not win the ACC this year, I will be shocked. There is no excuse for them not to win, they are in a class of their own in the ACC. Texas Tech is in a similar spot, but will have slightly tougher competition. Both Miami and Texas Tech are minus odds to win their conference. Where it starts to get tricky is with the Big 10. There are 3 teams I think can realistically win it, and those teams are Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana. I believe Oregon to have the best talent roster, and the most favorable schedule. The SEC is a crapshoot, the talent is more spread throughout the teams instead of being consolidated at the top. The other Power 4 conferences each have 3 teams with +1200 odds or better to win the conference, the SEC has 7. With the SEC I trust Kirby Smart, I could very well see another team winning it, but in this case I am going off trusting Kirby until he gives me a reason not to. 

Iowa to make the playoffs

This is pure delusion, let me live a little. But here is my rationale, a 10-2 Big 10 team makes the playoffs no question. Now to accomplish that Iowa will need to go 1-2 against their Michigan, Ohio State, and Washington stretch, and then handle business against the rest of the schedule which could very well happen. But we will know very early on what the odds of this happening are.