8/26/26

Each week I will put out the games I am putting my money on, sometimes it will be a few, sometimes it will be a lot. Some analysis will be short and some will be long. Last year I correctly picked 53% against the spread, and placed second in our moneyline pick’em pool so I feel I have done well in this realm. I do not often bet O/U’s but this week there were 5 games I wanted to cover. 

North Carolina @ Texas Christian 

Line: TCU -7.5, O/U: 47.5

My Pick: TCU -7.5

First off, I HATE international games. I am all about spreading college football to the masses as I truly do believe that this is the best sport in the world. What makes college football great is what happens on the campus. It is the student body, it is the tailgates, it is the fact that most college teams are in areas where there isn’t an NFL team and this is their “pro” sport. Some of these fanbases have fans that are so deeply rooted in their team and you cannot replicate that on a neutral site in Europe or anywhere except the campus. But on to the analysis. 

I do not think this game will be close at all. UNC returns a whopping 6 starters, and had to do a complete rebuild at almost every position group. Their offense last year was atrocious and although I think they will improve, it will be a longer stage rebuild to get this out of the mud. They hired Bobby Petrino to lead the offense so I expect playcalling to be better, but the execution will limit them. TCU brings back some key pieces on their D Line which will be going against an inexperienced OL. Although TCU loses some starters in their backfield, I believe they brought in the tools to reload. TCU brings in experienced Harvard QB Jaden Craig, and Jeremy Payne who started to hear up in the second half of the season will lead the backs. He should see more production with them switching to a more Pro-Style offense with a new OC. They also retain some solid options at WR/TE. I do not think it will be as big of a blowout like last year, but TCU should win this game by two scores. 

NC State @ Virginia
Line: Virginia -5.5, O/U: 53.5

My Pick: NC State +5.5 and O53.5

This is going to be a fun game. CJ Bailey is very fun to watch and comes in with 22 career starts, he played very well last year and was very exciting to watch. Opposite him is Beau Pribula who also is very experienced playing 2 years at Penn State and last year at Missouri. Let’s talk about NC State first, they lost a lot last year. Hollywood Smothers went to Texas, and their top 3 WR’s also are no longer there. They also lost a ton of their defense which includes their entire DL. They have some question marks with the biggest being their WR core. Virginia is in a similar spot, they lost their QB, top two RB’s, top three WR’s, TE, and two members of their OL. Their defense is tricky, starting off 2025 they ranked 45 in the power 4 through their first 7 games, but through their final 7 they finished 5. They also needed to reload the defense but Kam Robinson, their all ACC LB is ready to go for this game. 

I think this game is going to be close, I really could see either team winning, but it should be a one score game. I also have the over here and if NC State is going to stay in this game they will be carried by their offense. I think NC State has the better offense and Virginia has the better defense. Ultimately, I think NC State will just have better QB play, and better production out of their skill players.  

Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State

Line: NDSU -7.0, O/U: 47.5

My Pick: NDSU -7.0

I have been excited for this game since it was announced North Dakota State was coming to the FBS level. NDSU is one of the most dominant FCS schools of all time, and their fans are going to be absolutely insane for their first ever FBS game. Fargo is a top 15 drunkest city in the country, and if you do not believe they will play a factor in this game, you are probably already off the liquor. Some quick game notes, Jacksonville State brings in some experienced offensive players and Caden Creel who did well after becoming the starter last year. NDSU had a great pass rush and running production at the FCS level but the biggest question is if that will translate to a higher level. Additionally they have QB change to Nathan Hayes. Half of this bet is a vibes pick. I do not want to cheer against NDSU in their first FBS game, but the other half truly believes the winning culture at the school will translate well and they will win the line of scrimmage. 

Hawaii @ Stanford 

Line: Stanford -4.0, O/U: 48.5

My Pick: Hawaii +4.0

Both these teams are going to be brand new teams. Hawaii has to replace 17 starters, and Stanford sees a new coach and with that basically has to replace the entire offense except for the OL who even still was not very good last year. Hawaii returns Micah Alejado who was the MWC Offensive player of the year last year and their same HC and OC. This is especially important because Stanford’s passing defense was quite literally the worst in the nation last year. They will likely be without his favorite target Pofele Ashlock who is still trying to come back from injury. The one thing that would bring this team down is roster continuity. It will be their first time playing a game together so although they could be talented, will they have the chemistry. Ultimately I trust Alejado to get it done against Stanford’s awful secondary.

Memphis @ UNLV

Line: UNLV -5.5, O/U: 56.5

My Pick: UNLV -5.5

This should be a fun game, you have two G6 teams that have won a ton of games recently. But they are two very different teams. UNLV returns an amazing RB in Jai’den Thomas who averaged 7 yards per carry last year, and they added former highly touted recruit Jackson Arnold by way of Oklahoma and most recently Auburn. Regardless of how you feel about his performance at both of those schools, he will face significantly easier defenses, and have an improved OL. He was sacked 30 times in 10 games last season and he should have more time for his reads. They do lose their 4 best WR options however. Their defense will also need to see improvement as they ranked 117th in opponent YPG. Memphis is practically brand new after Ryan Silverfield left for Arkansas. Charles Huff takes over by way of Southern Miss and brings the majority of his roster with him. Their OL is almost completely rebuilt and all come from different schools so I do worry about their chemistry. 

If Memphis does win this game, it will come from winning the turnover battle. With most players coming from Southern Miss, they were pretty average statistically, but created an absurd amount of turnover and had an FBS leading 25 interceptions. Dan Mullen and UNLV should take care of business here. They will take advantage of having a more complete roster.